January 20, 2021

Voda-Concept a retail dealer’s play, no technique to estimate its fairness worth: Sandip Sabharwal



Among the many listed telecom gamers is Bharti to be the play right here as a result of the up transfer on Vodafone appears to have plateaued.
The positive factors within the telecom market appear to be asymmetrical. On one hand, now we have seen Bharti achieve by way of ARPUs and however, we’re seeing Vodafone-Concept lose out. A number of the greater worth customers are quitting Vodafone-Concept due to their monetary points and porting out to Airtel principally or to Jio.

Vodafone-Concept is in a difficult scenario nonetheless and though they’ll profit from the tailwinds that are there for your complete telecom sector, however for fairness buyers the fairness worth of the inventory may be very powerful to estimate. It’s only a retail dealer’s play now the place folks see it’s a Rs 7-Eight inventory and carry on shopping for and promoting. In any other case, with their debt burden, there isn’t a method we will estimate any fairness worth for this firm.

What’s your tackle M&M. Would this be your most popular guess within the pack?
Mahindra & Mahindra continues to be an inexpensive inventory given the truth that it not solely has the auto enterprise, it has subsidiaries additionally that are doing moderately properly. So on a SOTP foundation, it’s nonetheless a inventory which has intrinsic worth however there was a run up from the underside.

The March backside was round 300. Now it’s 600 and so it has doubled. So, close to time period optimistic appears to have been factored in. From right here on, they’ll want a revival within the automotive enterprise apart from the farm gear enterprise for the inventory to maneuver any considerably greater from the present ranges as a result of one of many tailwinds for lots of the auto corporations was that enter value was subdued and so regardless of low volumes, the margins might maintain.

We now have seen a major uptick in metal costs. Most metallic costs have gone up during the last two weeks. In order that tailwind might go lacking going ahead. They are going to want extra quantity revival. I might assume that it’s in a good worth zone until and till they utterly shock on the upside by way of reported numbers and are very optimistic on the steering which they usually should not as a result of usually they provide a conservative steering.

Thematically, how would you play the agricultural versus city restoration? Wouldn’t it be by way of the auto performs and tractors in particular? Wouldn’t it be by way of staples or would it not be another sector that you simply wish to play this theme together with?
Shopper staples and FMCG corporations appear to be the higher positioned regardless of their comparatively greater valuation as a result of they’re those who’re truly commenting on continued revival in demand regardless of them truly doing very properly and for the remainder of the sectors and likewise some farm gear corporations probably.

I don’t have a tendency to purchase fertiliser stocks as a result of they are usually very risky however this yr they’ve executed properly. They may proceed to do properly. I like UPL. It’s nonetheless a really low cost inventory relative to its fundamentals and given the low curiosity setting globally, the debt considerations of UPL might go into the backburner going ahead. I believe that’s one firm to play. However we have to watch even the agricultural revival theme as a result of all of us see robust rains in some components of the nation and we expect that it’s a good monsoon. However up in northern and central India, there have been important shortfalls in rainfall. So even when the monsoon is regular, whether or not that results in the sort of the agricultural manufacturing uptick we predict as of now could be one thing we might want to see.

These are the imponderables at this stage. Quite a lot of the agricultural performs have already moved up and to that extent, they should spend time consolidating earlier than an extra up transfer.

Speciality chemical compounds is one theme that now we have been speaking about of late. Ancillary names are additionally collaborating within the rally.
What is going on now could be that the rally available in the market is percolating all the way down to the decrease degree stocks. I used to be trying on the prime gainers within the papers right this moment and most of them are very speculative stocks. Sometimes, packaging corporations have loved very low value earnings ratios, the primary cause being they’re very cyclical of their earnings.

I believe all of the FMCG revival and smaller packs being consumed, are actually getting performed into the packaging stocks. However they shouldn’t be taken as progress stocks. I might not play them on a sustainable foundation .

What have you ever product of the RBI coverage announcement yesterday with reference to gold loans? Can one count on up films within the likes of Mannapuram, Muthoot?
I like Mannapuram and a majority of their portfolio is doing properly. The latest correction has been extra as a result of points round MFI enterprise, The microfinance enterprise is underneath stress all throughout and that’s the place the brief time period hiccups for not solely Mannapuram however many different corporations like Bandhan and all who’re into this phase will play out.

However the RBI resolution is fairly ridiculous placing a 90% mortgage to worth on a commodity which is so risky and which has moved 10% in per week. So what occurs if there may be instantly a correction and it falls 15% whereas the mortgage to the worth of 90% has been lent out? I believe 75% was prudential guideline, I don’t assume they need to have executed it to 90% and my guess is a lot of the banks is not going to do it. So it’s an enabling factor, banks can provide as much as 90% however I don’t assume a lot of the banks will, given the share volatility in gold costs which now we have seen these days.

Gold was simply round Rs 40,000 per 10 grams in April and right this moment it’s at Rs 56,000-57,000 which is a 35% uptick. It might probably simply fall 15% in any correction. I might assume that the precise influence may not be as nice as what has been considered and most banks shouldn’t be doing it at 90% as a result of it opens them as much as a much bigger danger.

What’s your tackle Lupin vis-à-vis a Cipla that we’re nonetheless watching out for right this moment?
Lupin outcomes have been disappointing and that may be a firm which has been constantly underneath stress and that additionally displays of their inventory value motion, clearly it has moved up together with all the opposite pharma stocks however to not that extent as a result of most of their companies are nonetheless underneath stress and are unable to manage up with the lowered profitability or discount in gross sales of a few of their erstwhile speciality merchandise and so forth.

To that extent, it ought to stay an underperformer. Truly the standout earnings have been largely from Dr Reddy’s and as soon as these numbers got here out, we noticed the opposite stocks additionally rally, even Solar Pharma numbers weren’t as nice, like they have been okay however they weren’t as nice, their outlook additionally is just not as a lot good. I believe it’s Dr Reddy’s which has truly stood out among the many bigger pharma corporations and that has taken a lot of the different stocks up.