January 19, 2021

Industrial automobile volumes to contract 25-28% in FY21, outlook stays destructive: Icra

Mumbai: Industrial autos (CV) volumes are anticipated to shrink 25-28 per cent this fiscal amid a number of headwinds together with the pandemic affect, and the outlook for the sector stays “destructive” on the again of constant challenges, scores company Icra stated on Wednesday. Within the earlier fiscal, CV home volumes stood at 7,17,688 models as towards an all-time excessive of 10,07,311 autos in 2018-19.

The outlook for the industrial autos (CV) sector stays ‘destructive’ on the again of constant challenges comparable to over-capacity, subdued freight availability, financing constraints, amongst others, all of which have compounded as a result of pandemic, Icra stated in a launch.

The scores company stated it expects the volumes in FY2021 to contract by 25-28 per cent, which might carry trade volumes all the way down to the bottom ranges in additional than a decade, it stated.

ICRA performed an intensive survey, masking 26 CV sellers from 11 states in October to gauge the developments on the floor stage and to grasp the present challenges of the sector.

“The home CV section was already within the midst of a number of headwinds in FY2020 and witnessed a steep quantity contraction of 29 per cent,” Icra Vice President Shamsher Dewan stated.

“The trade had been anticipating the down-cycle to increase into the present fiscal as nicely, as elevated automobile costs publish transition to new emission norms (BS-VI) would have added to the present plethora of challenges. Nonetheless, the extent of the contraction has been worse than anticipated, on account of the challenges led to by the pandemic,” Dewan added.

The present challenges comparable to overcapacity within the trucking system, subdued freight availability on account of a weak macroeconomic surroundings, financing constraints, and stress on the money flows of fleet operators have all exacerbated with the onset of the pandemic and the lockdowns imposed to comprise the identical, he stated.

Accordingly, fleet operators have pushed new automobile purchases to the backburner, as is obvious from the 85 per cent and 55 per cent contraction in total CV retail volumes witnessed in Q1 and Q2 FY2021, respectively, Dewan added.

An awesome 85 per cent of the sellers indicated in the course of the survey that gross sales volumes continued to contract until September 2020, and regardless of sequential enchancment, the present demand surroundings stays total muted, due to the challenges, Icra stated.

Stating that financing stays a serious obstacle to gross sales, it stated one of many key challenges highlighted was that the stress within the fleet operator section had turned financing establishments more and more cautious in lending to the CV section.

Nonetheless, on a constructive be aware, the survey additionally indicated that 50 per cent of the sellers reported stock ranges of lower than three weeks, whereas one other 42 per cent reported between 3-5 weeks.

The unique tools producers (OEMs) have needed to lengthen restricted assist within the type of financing or incentives to dealerships throughout this era, as stock ranges had been fairly low.

Moreover, they’ve been supportive in not pushing extreme stock in the direction of dealerships, because the demand surroundings stays subdued, Icra stated.

Dealerships have additionally turned cautious on the discounting entrance, with greater than half of the sellers indicating low cost ranges of lower than 10 per cent. That is considerably decrease than reductions reported final 12 months as sellers struggled to liquidate the BS-IV stock that might flip out of date with the transition to BS-VI norms from April 1, 2020, it stated.

“ICRA expects vital double-digit contraction with the affect to be increased for the M&HCV (medium and heavy industrial automobile) (truck) and the buses segments. The LCV (gentle industrial automobile) (truck) section is predicted to fare comparatively higher, supported by heat rural sentiments and rising necessities for last-mile transportation,” Dewan added.