September 30, 2020

India could get COVID-19 vaccine by early 2021, says Bernstein Analysis

As COVID-19 vaccine trials transfer forward at a break-neck pace, an accredited vaccine is prone to hit the Indian market by the primary quarter of 2021, Bernstein stated in a report. Globally, there are four candidates which can be near approval by the top of 2020 or early 2021.

Via partnerships, India has entry to 2 of these – AZ/Oxford’s viral vector vaccine and Novavax‘s protein subunit vaccine.

“Part I/II information appears promising for each when it comes to security and the vaccine’s potential to elicit an immune response,” it stated. “We’re optimistic that there might be an accredited vaccine available in the market by 1Q calendar 12 months 2021 in India.”

Whereas the vaccine may very well be out there at USD 3-6 (Rs 225 to Rs 550) per dose, herd immunity could be two years away on account of implementation challenges, it stated, including the expertise in giant scale grownup vaccination programmes is skinny.

The polio eradication marketing campaign in 2011 and the latest Intensified Mission Indradhanush (IMI) are examples of large-scale campaigns however the scale there was 1/third of what the COVID-19 vaccine implementation programme calls for.

Chilly chain storage and skilled manpower would be the greatest hurdles, it stated. “Even assuming 2x present throughput, implementation within the authorities programme can take 18-20 months.”

“We imagine, the primary set of vaccines might be allotted to the weak inhabitants – healthcare employees, inhabitants above 65 years adopted by important sector employees and the economically weaker part of the inhabitants,” the brokerage stated.

Detailing on vaccine trials, it stated Novavax’s candidate has proven greater ranges of antibodies and viral neutralisation, about 5-6x HCS (Human Convalescent Sera) in comparison with AZ/Oxford’s vaccine, which got here near common HCS ranges. These, nevertheless, aren’t strictly comparable because the convalescent teams have been totally different.

However, each confirmed sufficient promise to progress to Part III and trials are underway now. It additionally seems that each the candidates would require 2 doses to be administered 21/28 days aside.

Stating that Serum Institute of India (SII) is finest positioned to ship the primary vaccine, Bernstein stated SII has partnered with each AZ/Oxford and Novavax to fabricate and commercialise their vaccines on approval.

SII has current capabilities in each protein sub-unit (business) and viral vector (pipeline) applied sciences and their present capacities may be repurposed.

“We don’t foresee manufacturing scale-up challenges,” it stated. “They’re additionally investing in further capacities of 1 billion doses and we estimate might be geared as much as provide 600 million doses in 2021 and one billion doses in 2022 out of which 400-500 million must be out there for India in 2021 retaining in thoughts their different commitments.”

Past SII, Zydus, Bharat Biotech, and Organic E are additionally engaged on their very own vaccine candidates and are at the moment in Part I/II.

Bernstein stated India’s vaccine market may be USD 6 billion over FY21-22. “We estimate volumes to be break up 55:45 between the federal government channel and personal market and procurement costs to be USD Three per dose for the federal government and end-consumer costs of USD 6 within the non-public market.”